The 47% is only 47%

5 Nov

No matter how you slice it…

Mitt Romney nailed it in his “47%” comments earlier.  There are 47% of the US electorate who will vote for Obama no matter what.  But only 47%.  Obama has not polled above 50% in any national poll for months – and if he polls at 47% – 48% that’s about all he can expect to get in the election.  That means Romney wins the popular vote. Voter ID numbers means he wins the Electoral College as well.

Gallup is calling the election R 50%, O 49% – that means the final will be a minimum 2 pt win for Romney – but when it comes to who will show up to vote – Gallup has bad news for Team Obama, but they buried at the bottom of the table;

Demographics of Likely Voters, Recent Presidential Elections, Gallup Polls

Republicans enjoy a 7% increase in those who will vote from 2008, while the Dems are seeing a 4% decrease – voters likely to vote are R+3 in 2012 over 2008, these numbers hold for swing states and national … R +3 means a likely ECV in the 315 range for Romney.

Red State, Gallup


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