Polling and Occam’s Razor

10 Sep

The poll results following the DNC are being spun so badly they make climate change data look nearly valid.  When the economy, jobs, housing and common sense dictate that there is no way Obama should be polling anywhere near Romney at this point – there is only one explanation.

The polls are wrong…

The findings–based, obviously, on a small sample–suggest that four percent of voters changed their minds about the Democratic Party over the space of two weeks:

That is, of course, ridiculous. What happened, rather, is that the second sample contained a lot more Democrats than the first one.

Meanwhile – as reported earlier

If the CNN/ORC poll contains any significant finding, it is this: independents favored Romney over Obama by 14%. That’s right, 14%:

If Romney carries independents by anything like that margin, the election won’t be close. The pollsters found that virtually all Democrats are voting for Obama and virtually all Republicans are voting for Romney, so someone with quicker math skills than mine can pretty quickly figure out how much they had to over-sample Democrats to come out with Obama winning by six points.

Power Line

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